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  Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2

Cammarano, D., Rötter, R. P., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Wallach, D., Martre, P., Hatfield, J. L., Jones, J. W., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A. C., Boote, K. J., Thorburn, P. J., Kersebaum, K. C., Aggarwal, P. K., Angulo, C., Basso, B., Bertuzzi, P., Biernath, C., Brisson, N., Challinor, A. J., Doltra, J., Gayler, S., Goldberg, R., Heng, L., Hooker, J. E., Hunt, L. A., Ingwersen, J., Izaurralde, R. C., Müller, C., Kumar, S. N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Olesen, J. E., Osborne, T. M., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Steduto, P., Stöckle, C. O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Travasso, M., Waha, K., White, J. W., Wolf, J. (2016): Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2. - Field Crops Research, 198, 80-92.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.08.015

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Cammarano, D.1, Author
Rötter, R. P.1, Author
Asseng, S.1, Author
Ewert, F.1, Author
Wallach, D.1, Author
Martre, P.1, Author
Hatfield, J. L.1, Author
Jones, J. W.1, Author
Rosenzweig, C.1, Author
Ruane, A. C.1, Author
Boote, K. J.1, Author
Thorburn, P. J.1, Author
Kersebaum, K. C.1, Author
Aggarwal, P. K.1, Author
Angulo, C.1, Author
Basso, B.1, Author
Bertuzzi, P.1, Author
Biernath, C.1, Author
Brisson, N.1, Author
Challinor, A. J.1, Author
Doltra, J.1, AuthorGayler, S.1, AuthorGoldberg, R.1, AuthorHeng, L.1, AuthorHooker, J. E.1, AuthorHunt, L. A.1, AuthorIngwersen, J.1, AuthorIzaurralde, R. C.1, AuthorMüller, Christoph2, Author              Kumar, S. N.1, AuthorNendel, C.1, AuthorO'Leary, G.1, AuthorOlesen, J. E.1, AuthorOsborne, T. M.1, AuthorPriesack, E.1, AuthorRipoche, D.1, AuthorSteduto, P.1, AuthorStöckle, C. O.1, AuthorStratonovitch, P.1, AuthorStreck, T.1, AuthorSupit, I.1, AuthorTao, F.1, AuthorTravasso, M.1, AuthorWaha, Katharina2, Author              White, J. W.1, AuthorWolf, J.1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (Teff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50% of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.fcr.2016.08.015
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7292
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Model / method: LPJmL
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
 Degree: -

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Title: Field Crops Research
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 198 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 80 - 92 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/181210