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  Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate

Klose, A. K., Karle, V., Winkelmann, R., Donges, J. F. (2020): Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate. - Royal Society Open Science, 7, 6, 200599.
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.200599

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Klose, Ann Kristin1, Autor              
Karle, Volker1, Autor              
Winkelmann, Ricarda1, Autor              
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann1, Autor              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: In ecology, climate and other fields, (sub)systems have been identified that can transition into a qualitatively different state when a critical threshold or tipping point in a driving process is crossed. An understanding of those tipping elements is of great interest given the increasing influence of humans on the biophysical Earth system. Complex interactions exist between tipping elements, e.g. physical mechanisms connect subsystems of the climate system. Based on earlier work on such coupled nonlinear systems, we systematically assessed the qualitative long-term behaviour of interacting tipping elements. We developed an understanding of the consequences of interactions on the tipping behaviour allowing for tipping cascades to emerge under certain conditions. The (narrative) application of these qualitative results to real-world examples of interacting tipping elements indicates that tipping cascades with profound consequences may occur: the interacting Greenland ice sheet and thermohaline ocean circulation might tip before the tipping points of the isolated subsystems are crossed. The eutrophication of the first lake in a lake chain might propagate through the following lakes without a crossing of their individual critical nutrient input levels. The possibility of emerging cascading tipping dynamics calls for the development of a unified theory of interacting tipping elements and the quantitative analysis of interacting real-world tipping elements.

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 Datum: 2020-05-202020-06-24
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
MDB-ID: yes - 3030
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Planetary Boundaries
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
DOI: 10.1098/rsos.200599
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Royal Society Open Science
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 7 (6) Artikelnummer: 200599 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/1709271