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  Occurrence of crop pests and diseases has largely increased in China since 1970

Wang, C., Wang, X., Jin, Z., Müller, C., Pugh, T. A., Chen, A., Wang, T., Huang, L., Zhang, Y., Li, L., Piao, S. (2022): Occurrence of crop pests and diseases has largely increased in China since 1970. - Nature Food, 3, 1, 57-65.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00428-0

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 Creators:
Wang, Chenzhi1, Author
Wang, Xuhui1, Author
Jin, Zhenong1, Author
Müller, Christoph2, Author              
Pugh, Thomas A.M.1, Author
Chen, Anping1, Author
Wang, Tao1, Author
Huang, Ling1, Author
Zhang, Yuan1, Author
Li, Laurent1, Author
Piao, Shilong1, Author
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Crop pests and diseases (CPDs) are emerging threats to global food security, but trends in the occurrence of pests and diseases remain largely unknown due to the lack of observations for major crop producers. Here, on the basis of a unique historical dataset with more than 5,500 statistical records, we found an increased occurrence of CPDs in every province of China, with the national average rate of CPD occurrence increasing by a factor of four (from 53% to 218%) during 1970–2016. Historical climate change is responsible for more than one-fifth of the observed increment of CPD occurrence (22% ± 17%), ranging from 2% to 79% in different provinces. Among the climatic factors considered, warmer nighttime temperatures contribute most to the increasing occurrence of CPDs (11% ± 9%). Projections of future CPDs show that at the end of this century, climate change will lead to an increase in CPD occurrence by 243% ± 110% under a low-emissions scenario (SSP126) and 460% ± 213% under a high-emissions scenario (SSP585), with the magnitude largely dependent on the impacts of warmer nighttime temperatures and decreasing frost days. This observation-based evidence highlights the urgent need to accurately account for the increasing risk of CPDs in mitigating the impacts of climate change on food production.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-10-112021-12-092022-01
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 11
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: MDB-ID: No data to archive
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Land use
Regional keyword: Asia
DOI: 10.1038/s43016-021-00428-0
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Food
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 3 (1) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 57 - 65 Identifier: Publisher: Nature
Other: 2662-1355
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/nature-food