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  City-level climate change mitigation in China

Shan, Y., Guan, D., Hubacek, K., Zheng, B., Davis, S. J., Jia, L., Liu, J., Liu, Z., Fromer, N., Mi, Z., Meng, J., Deng, X., Li, Y., Lin, J., Schroeder, H., Weisz, H., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2018): City-level climate change mitigation in China. - Science Advances, 4, 6, eaaq0390.
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaq0390

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 Creators:
Shan, Y.1, Author
Guan, D.1, Author
Hubacek, K.1, Author
Zheng, B.1, Author
Davis, S. J.1, Author
Jia, L.1, Author
Liu, J.1, Author
Liu, Z.1, Author
Fromer, N.1, Author
Mi, Z.1, Author
Meng, J.1, Author
Deng, X.1, Author
Li, Y.1, Author
Lin, J.1, Author
Schroeder, H.1, Author
Weisz, Helga2, Author              
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim2, Author              
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: As national efforts to reduce CO2 emissions intensify, policy-makers need increasingly specific, subnational information about the sources of CO2 and the potential reductions and economic implications of different possible policies. This is particularly true in China, a large and economically diverse country that has rapidly industrialized and urbanized and that has pledged under the Paris Agreement that its emissions will peak by 2030. We present new, city-level estimates of CO2 emissions for 182 Chinese cities, decomposed into 17 different fossil fuels, 46 socioeconomic sectors, and 7 industrial processes. We find that more affluent cities have systematically lower emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), supported by imports from less affluent, industrial cities located nearby. In turn, clusters of industrial cities are supported by nearby centers of coal or oil extraction. Whereas policies directly targeting manufacturing and electric power infrastructure would drastically undermine the GDP of industrial cities, consumption-based policies might allow emission reductions to be subsidized by those with greater ability to pay. In particular, sector-based analysis of each city suggests that technological improvements could be a practical and effective means of reducing emissions while maintaining growth and the current economic structure and energy system. We explore city-level emission reductions under three scenarios of technological progress to show that substantial reductions (up to 31%) are possible by updating a disproportionately small fraction of existing infrastructure.v

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaq0390
PIKDOMAIN: Transdisciplinary Concepts & Methods - Research Domain IV
PIKDOMAIN: Director / Executive Staff / Science & Society
PIKDOMAIN: FutureLab - Social Metabolism and Impacts
eDoc: 8436
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: Director Emeritus Schellnhuber
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Cities
Research topic keyword: Decarbonization  
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Social Metabolism and Impacts
Working Group: Network- and machine-learning-based prediction of extreme events
 Degree: -

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Title: Science Advances
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 4 (6) Sequence Number: eaaq0390 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/161027
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)