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  Occurrence of crop pests and diseases has largely increased in China since 1970

Wang, C., Wang, X., Jin, Z., Müller, C., Pugh, T. A., Chen, A., Wang, T., Huang, L., Zhang, Y., Li, L., Piao, S. (2022): Occurrence of crop pests and diseases has largely increased in China since 1970. - Nature Food, 3, 1, 57-65.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00428-0

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 Urheber:
Wang, Chenzhi1, Autor
Wang, Xuhui1, Autor
Jin, Zhenong1, Autor
Müller, Christoph2, Autor              
Pugh, Thomas A.M.1, Autor
Chen, Anping1, Autor
Wang, Tao1, Autor
Huang, Ling1, Autor
Zhang, Yuan1, Autor
Li, Laurent1, Autor
Piao, Shilong1, Autor
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Crop pests and diseases (CPDs) are emerging threats to global food security, but trends in the occurrence of pests and diseases remain largely unknown due to the lack of observations for major crop producers. Here, on the basis of a unique historical dataset with more than 5,500 statistical records, we found an increased occurrence of CPDs in every province of China, with the national average rate of CPD occurrence increasing by a factor of four (from 53% to 218%) during 1970–2016. Historical climate change is responsible for more than one-fifth of the observed increment of CPD occurrence (22% ± 17%), ranging from 2% to 79% in different provinces. Among the climatic factors considered, warmer nighttime temperatures contribute most to the increasing occurrence of CPDs (11% ± 9%). Projections of future CPDs show that at the end of this century, climate change will lead to an increase in CPD occurrence by 243% ± 110% under a low-emissions scenario (SSP126) and 460% ± 213% under a high-emissions scenario (SSP585), with the magnitude largely dependent on the impacts of warmer nighttime temperatures and decreasing frost days. This observation-based evidence highlights the urgent need to accurately account for the increasing risk of CPDs in mitigating the impacts of climate change on food production.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2021-10-112021-12-092022-01
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 11
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: MDB-ID: No data to archive
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Land use
Regional keyword: Asia
DOI: 10.1038/s43016-021-00428-0
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Nature Food
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 3 (1) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 57 - 65 Identifikator: Publisher: Springer Nature
Anderer: 2662-1355
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/nature-food