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  Wave-like global economic ripple response to Hurricane Sandy

Middelanis, R., Willner, S., Otto, C., Kuhla, K., Quante, L., Levermann, A. (2021): Wave-like global economic ripple response to Hurricane Sandy. - Environmental Research Letters, 16, 12, 124049.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac39c0

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26306 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26306_2
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Middelanis, Robin1, Author              
Willner, Sven1, Author              
Otto, Christian1, Author              
Kuhla, Kilian1, Author              
Quante, Lennart1, Author              
Levermann, Anders1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Tropical cyclones range among the costliest disasters on Earth. Their economic repercussions along the supply and trade network also affect remote economies that are not directly affected. We here simulate possible global repercussions on consumption for the example case of Hurricane Sandy in the US (2012) using the shock-propagation model Acclimate. The modeled shock yields a global three-phase ripple: an initial production demand reduction and associated consumption price decrease, followed by a supply shortage with increasing prices, and finally a recovery phase. Regions with strong trade relations to the US experience strong magnitudes of the ripple. A dominating demand reduction or supply shortage leads to overall consumption gains or losses of a region, respectively. While finding these repercussions in historic data is challenging due to strong volatility of economic interactions, numerical models like ours can help to identify them by approaching the problem from an exploratory angle, isolating the effect of interest. For this, our model simulates the economic interactions of over 7000 regional economic sectors, interlinked through about 1.8 million trade relations. Under global warming, the wave-like structures of the economic response to major hurricanes like the one simulated here are likely to intensify and potentially overlap with other weather extremes.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-11-152021-12-062021-12-06
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Complex Networks
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Regional keyword: Global
Regional keyword: North America
Model / method: Acclimate
Model / method: Agent-based Models
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac39c0
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
MDB-ID: yes - 3256
 Degree: -

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Project name : RECEIPT
Grant ID : 820712
Funding program : Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2)
Funding organization : EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Project name : CLIC
Grant ID : 01LA1817C
Funding program : Ökonomie des Klimawandels
Funding organization : BMBF
Project name : QUIDIC
Grant ID : 01LP1907A
Funding program : Ökonomie des Klimawandels
Funding organization : BMBF
Project name : SLICE
Grant ID : 01LA1829A
Funding program : Ökonomie des Klimawandels
Funding organization : BMBF

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Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 16 (12) Sequence Number: 124049 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326
Publisher: IOP Publishing