English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
 
 
DownloadE-Mail
  Impact of periodic vaccination in SEIRS seasonal model

Gabrick, E. C., Brugnago, E., de Souza, S., Iarosz, K., Szeszech, J., Viana, R., Caldas, I., Batista, A., Kurths, J. (2024): Impact of periodic vaccination in SEIRS seasonal model. - Chaos, 34, 1, 013137.
https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0169834

Item is

Files

show Files
hide Files
:
29685oa.pdf (Publisher version), 5MB
 
File Permalink:
-
Name:
29685oa.pdf
Description:
-
Visibility:
Private (embargoed till 2025-01-27)
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
-
Copyright Info:
-
License:
-

Locators

show

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Gabrick, Enrique C.1, Author              
Brugnago, Eduardo2, Author
de Souza, Silvio2, Author
Iarosz, Kelly2, Author
Szeszech, Jose2, Author
Viana, Ricardo2, Author
Caldas, Ibere2, Author
Batista, Antonio2, Author
Kurths, Jürgen1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: We study three different strategies of vaccination in an SEIRS (Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered–Susceptible) seasonal forced model, which are (⁠ ⁠) continuous vaccination; (⁠ ⁠) periodic short-time localized vaccination, and (⁠ ⁠) periodic pulsed width campaign. Considering the first strategy, we obtain an expression for the basic reproduction number and infer a minimum vaccination rate necessary to ensure the stability of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) solution. In the second strategy, short duration pulses are added to a constant baseline vaccination rate. The pulse is applied according to the seasonal forcing phases. The best outcome is obtained by locating intensive immunization at inflection of the transmissivity curve. Therefore, a vaccination rate of of susceptible individuals is enough to ensure DFE. For the third vaccination proposal, additionally to the amplitude, the pulses have a prolonged time width. We obtain a non-linear relationship between vaccination rates and the duration of the campaign. Our simulations show that the baseline rates, as well as the pulse duration, can substantially improve the vaccination campaign effectiveness. These findings are in agreement with our analytical expression. We show a relationship between the vaccination parameters and the accumulated number of infected individuals, over the years, and show the relevance of the immunization campaign annual reaching for controlling the infection spreading. Regarding the dynamical behavior of the model, our simulations show that chaotic and periodic solutions as well as bi-stable regions depend on the vaccination parameters range.

Details

show
hide
Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2024-01-252024-01-25
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 14
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1063/5.0169834
MDB-ID: No data to archive
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Research topic keyword: Complex Networks
Research topic keyword: Health
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Chaos
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 34 (1) Sequence Number: 013137 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/180808
Publisher: American Institute of Physics (AIP)