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  Anticipation-induced social tipping: can the environment be stabilised by social dynamics?

Müller, P. M., Heitzig, J., Kurths, J., Lüdge, K., Wiedermann, M. (2021): Anticipation-induced social tipping: can the environment be stabilised by social dynamics? - European Physical Journal - Special Topics, 230, 16-17, 3189-3199.
https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00011-5

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 Creators:
Müller, Paul Manuel1, Author              
Heitzig, Jobst1, Author              
Kurths, Jürgen1, Author              
Lüdge, Kathy2, Author
Wiedermann, Marc1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: In the past decades, human activities caused global Earth system changes, e.g., climate change or biodiversity loss. Simultaneously, these associated impacts have increased environmental awareness within societies across the globe, thereby leading to dynamical feedbacks between the social and natural Earth system. Contemporary modelling attempts of Earth system dynamics rarely incorporate such co-evolutions and interactions are mostly studied unidirectionally through direct or remembered past impacts. Acknowledging that societies have the additional capability for foresight, this work proposes a conceptual feedback model of socio-ecological co-evolution with the specific construct of anticipation acting as a mediator between the social and natural system. Our model reproduces results from previous sociological threshold models with bistability if one assumes a static environment. Once the environment changes in response to societal behaviour, the system instead converges towards a globally stable, but not necessarily desired, attractor. Ultimately, we show that anticipation of future ecological states then leads to metastability of the system where desired states can persist for a long time. We thereby demonstrate that foresight and anticipation form an important mechanism which, once its time horizon becomes large enough, fosters social tipping towards behaviour that can stabilise the environment and prevents potential socio-ecological collapse.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-03-182021-04-262021-10
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 11
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00011-5
MDB-ID: No data to archive
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Game Theory & Networks of Interacting Agents
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Research topic keyword: Complex Networks
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Research topic keyword: Sustainable Development
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
OATYPE: Hybrid - DEAL Springer Nature
 Degree: -

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Title: European Physical Journal - Special Topics
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 230 (16-17) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 3189 - 3199 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150617
Publisher: Springer