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  Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Payne, A. J., Nowicki, S., Abe‐Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Asay‐Davis, X., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Edwards, T. L., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Galton‐Fenzi, B. K., Goelzer, H., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Munneke, P. K., Larour, E., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G., Lipscomb, W. H., Little, C. M., Lowry, D. P., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Rückamp, M., Schlegel, N., Seroussi, H., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Tarasov, L., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., Wal, R. v. d., Broeke, M. v. d., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., Zwinger, T. (2021): Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. - Geophysical Research Letters, 48, 16, e2020GL091741.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741

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Payne, Antony J.1, Autor
Nowicki, Sophie1, Autor
Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako1, Autor
Agosta, Cécile1, Autor
Alexander, Patrick1, Autor
Albrecht, Torsten2, Autor              
Asay‐Davis, Xylar1, Autor
Aschwanden, Andy1, Autor
Barthel, Alice1, Autor
Bracegirdle, Thomas J.1, Autor
Calov, Reinhard2, Autor              
Chambers, Christopher1, Autor
Choi, Youngmin1, Autor
Cullather, Richard1, Autor
Cuzzone, Joshua1, Autor
Dumas, Christophe1, Autor
Edwards, Tamsin L.1, Autor
Felikson, Denis1, Autor
Fettweis, Xavier1, Autor
Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K.1, Autor
Goelzer, Heiko1, AutorGladstone, Rupert1, AutorGolledge, Nicholas R.1, AutorGregory, Jonathan M.1, AutorGreve, Ralf1, AutorHattermann, Tore1, AutorHoffman, Matthew J.1, AutorHumbert, Angelika1, AutorHuybrechts, Philippe1, AutorJourdain, Nicolas C.1, AutorKleiner, Thomas1, AutorMunneke, Peter Kuipers1, AutorLarour, Eric1, AutorLe clec'h, Sebastien1, AutorLee, Victoria1, AutorLeguy, Gunter1, AutorLipscomb, William H.1, AutorLittle, Christopher M.1, AutorLowry, Daniel P.1, AutorMorlighem, Mathieu1, AutorNias, Isabel1, AutorPattyn, Frank1, AutorPelle, Tyler1, AutorPrice, Stephen F.1, AutorQuiquet, Aurélien1, AutorReese, Ronja2, Autor              Rückamp, Martin1, AutorSchlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne1, AutorSeroussi, Hélène1, AutorShepherd, Andrew1, AutorSimon, Erika1, AutorSlater, Donald1, AutorSmith, Robin S.1, AutorStraneo, Fiammetta1, AutorSun, Sainan1, AutorTarasov, Lev1, AutorTrusel, Luke D.1, AutorVan Breedam, Jonas1, AutorWal, Roderik van de1, AutorBroeke, Michiel van den1, AutorWinkelmann, Ricarda2, Autor              Zhao, Chen1, AutorZhang, Tong1, AutorZwinger, Thomas1, Autor mehr..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

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 Datum: 2021-05-042021-08-192021-08-19
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091741
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Regional keyword: Arctic & Antarctica
Research topic keyword: Sea-level Rise
Model / method: SICOPOLIS
Research topic keyword: Ice
MDB-ID: No data to archive
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Geophysical Research Letters
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 48 (16) Artikelnummer: e2020GL091741 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals182
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Publisher: Wiley