English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
  State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

Schewe, J., Gosling, S. N., Reyer, C. P. O., Zhao, F., Ciais, P., Elliott, J., Francois, L., Huber, V., Lotze, H. K., Seneviratne, S. I., Vliet, M. T. H. v., Vautard, R., Wada, Y., Breuer, L., Büchner, M., Carozza, D. A., Chang, J., Coll, M., Deryng, D., Wit, A. d., Eddy, T. D., Folberth, C., Frieler, K., Friend, A. D., Gerten, D., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Ito, A., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Lawrence, P., Morfopoulos, C., Müller, C., Müller Schmied, H., Orth, R., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y., Pugh, T. A. M., Sakurai, G., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Steenbeek, J., Steinkamp, J., Tang, Q., Tian, H., Tittensor, D. P., Volkholz, J., Wang, X., Warszawski, L. (2019): State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes. - Nature Communications, 10, 1005.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6

Item is

Files

show Files
hide Files
:
8398oa.pdf (Publisher version), 3MB
Name:
8398oa.pdf
Description:
-
Visibility:
Public
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
-
Copyright Info:
-

Locators

show

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Schewe, Jacob1, Author              
Gosling, S. N.2, Author
Reyer, Christopher P. O.1, Author              
Zhao, F.2, Author
Ciais, P.2, Author
Elliott, J.2, Author
Francois, L.2, Author
Huber, V.2, Author
Lotze, H. K.2, Author
Seneviratne, S. I.2, Author
Vliet, M. T. H. van2, Author
Vautard, R.2, Author
Wada, Y.2, Author
Breuer, L.2, Author
Büchner, Matthias1, Author              
Carozza, D. A.2, Author
Chang, J.2, Author
Coll, M.2, Author
Deryng, D.2, Author
Wit, A. de2, Author
Eddy, T. D.2, AuthorFolberth, C.2, AuthorFrieler, Katja1, Author              Friend, A. D.2, AuthorGerten, Dieter1, Author              Gudmundsson, L.2, AuthorHanasaki, N.2, AuthorIto, A.2, AuthorKhabarov, N.2, AuthorKim, H.2, AuthorLawrence, P.2, AuthorMorfopoulos, C.2, AuthorMüller, Christoph1, Author              Müller Schmied, H.2, AuthorOrth, R.2, AuthorOstberg, Sebastian1, Author              Pokhrel, Y.2, AuthorPugh, T. A. M.2, AuthorSakurai, G.2, AuthorSatoh, Y.2, AuthorSchmid, E.2, AuthorStacke, T.2, AuthorSteenbeek, J.2, AuthorSteinkamp, J.2, AuthorTang, Q.2, AuthorTian, H.2, AuthorTittensor, D. P.2, AuthorVolkholz, Jan1, Author              Wang, X.2, AuthorWarszawski, Lila1, Author               more..
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.

Details

show
hide
Language(s):
 Dates: 2019
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: Director / Executive Staff / Science & Society
eDoc: 8398
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Health
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Energy
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: Europe
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Data-Centric Modeling of Cross-Sectoral Impacts
Working Group: Impacts of Climate Change on Human Population Dynamics
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 10 Sequence Number: 1005 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354