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  Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals

Kriegler, E., Bertram, C., Kuramochi, T., Jakob, M., Pehl, M., Stevanović, M., Höhne, N., Luderer, G., Minx, J. C., Fekete, H., Hilaire, J., Luna, L., Popp, A., Steckel, J. C., Sterl, S., Yalew, A. W., Dietrich, J. P., Edenhofer, O. (2018): Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals. - Environmental Research Letters, 13, 7, 074022.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4f1

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Kriegler, Elmar1, Autor              
Bertram, Christoph1, Autor              
Kuramochi, T.2, Autor
Jakob, M.2, Autor
Pehl, Michaja1, Autor              
Stevanović, Miodrag1, Autor              
Höhne, N.2, Autor
Luderer, Gunnar1, Autor              
Minx, J. C.2, Autor
Fekete, H.2, Autor
Hilaire, Jérôme1, Autor              
Luna, L.2, Autor
Popp, Alexander1, Autor              
Steckel, Jan Christoph1, Autor              
Sterl, S.2, Autor
Yalew, Amsalu Woldie1, Autor              
Dietrich, Jan Philipp1, Autor              
Edenhofer, Ottmar1, Autor              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Zusammenfassung: Climate policy needs to account for political and social acceptance. Current national climate policy plans proposed under the Paris Agreement lead to higher emissions until 2030 than cost-effective pathways towards the Agreements' long-term temperature goals would imply. Therefore, the current plans would require highly disruptive changes, prohibitive transition speeds, and large long-term deployment of risky mitigation measures for achieving the agreement's temperature goals after 2030. Since the prospects of introducing the cost-effective policy instrument, a global comprehensive carbon price in the near-term, are negligible, we study how a strengthening of existing plans by a global roll-out of regional policies can ease the implementation challenge of reaching the Paris temperature goals. The regional policies comprise a bundle of regulatory policies in energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, and land use and moderate, regionally differentiated carbon pricing. We find that a global roll-out of these policies could reduce global CO2 emissions by an additional 10 GtCO2eq in 2030 compared to current plans. It would lead to emissions pathways close to the levels of cost-effective likely below 2 °C scenarios until 2030, thereby reducing implementation challenges post 2030. Even though a gradual phase-in of a portfolio of regulatory policies might be less disruptive than immediate cost-effective carbon pricing, it would perform worse in other dimensions. In particular, it leads to higher economic impacts that could become major obstacles in the long-term. Hence, such policy packages should not be viewed as alternatives to carbon pricing, but rather as complements that provide entry points to achieve the Paris climate goals.

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 Datum: 2018
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aac4f1
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
eDoc: 8121
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Carbon Pricing
Model / method: REMIND
Model / method: MAgPIE
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Energy Systems
Working Group: Research Software Engineering for Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Environmental Research Letters
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 13 (7) Artikelnummer: 074022 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326