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  A probabilistic study of the return of stratospheric ozone to 1960 levels

Södergren, A. H., Bodeker, G. E., Kremser, S., Meinshausen, M., McDonald, A. J. (2016): A probabilistic study of the return of stratospheric ozone to 1960 levels. - Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 17, 9289-9297.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069700

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_21526 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_21526_3
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Södergren, A. H.1, Author
Bodeker, G. E.1, Author
Kremser, S.1, Author
Meinshausen, M.1, Author
McDonald, A. J.1, Author
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Cooperation Partners, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone‐depleting substances are expected to continue to affect concentrations of ozone in the stratosphere through the 21st century. While a range of estimates for when stratospheric ozone is expected to return to unperturbed levels is available in the literature, quantification of the spread in results is sparse. Here we present the first probabilistic study of latitudinally resolved years of return of stratospheric ozone to 1960 levels. Results from our 180‐member ensemble, simulated with a newly developed simple climate model, suggest that the spread in return years of ozone is largest around 40°N/S and in the southern high latitudes and decreases with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The spread in projections of ozone is larger for higher greenhouse gas scenarios and is larger in the polar regions than in the midlatitudes, while the spread in ozone radiative forcing is smallest in the polar regions.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069700
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7532
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
Model / method: MAGICC
Regional keyword: Global
 Degree: -

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Title: Geophysical Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 43 (17) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 9289 - 9297 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals182