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  Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice

Wunderling, N., Willeit, M., Donges, J. F., Winkelmann, R. (2020): Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice. - Nature Communications, 11, 5177.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3

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 Creators:
Wunderling, Nico1, Author              
Willeit, Matteo1, Author              
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann1, Author              
Winkelmann, Ricarda1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warm-ing of 0.43 ˝C (interquartile range: 0.39´0.46 ˝C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also con-tribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centen-nial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2019-01-102020-09-172020-10-272020-10-27
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: MDB-ID: yes - 3050
Model / method: CLIMBER
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Regional keyword: Arctic & Antarctica
Research topic keyword: Ice
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3
Working Group: Ice Dynamics
Working Group: Whole Earth System Analysis
 Degree: -

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Project name : Dynamical Phenomena in Complex Networks: Fundamentals and Applications
Grant ID : -
Funding program : International Research Training Group (IRTG-1740)
Funding organization : IRTG

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Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 11 Sequence Number: 5177 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354
Publisher: Nature