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  Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal

Strefler, J., Kriegler, E., Bauer, N., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Giannousakis, A., Edenhofer, O. (2021): Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal. - Nature Communications, 12, 2264.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22211-2

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Strefler, Jessica1, Autor              
Kriegler, Elmar1, Autor              
Bauer, Nicolas1, Autor              
Luderer, Gunnar1, Autor              
Pietzcker, Robert C.1, Autor              
Giannousakis, Anastasis1, Autor              
Edenhofer, Ottmar1, Autor              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: The large majority of climate change mitigation scenarios that hold warming below 2 °C show high deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), resulting in a peak-and-decline behavior in global temperature. This is driven by the assumption of an exponentially increasing carbon price trajectory which is perceived to be economically optimal for meeting a carbon budget. However, this optimality relies on the assumption that a finite carbon budget associated with a temperature target is filled up steadily over time. The availability of net carbon removals invalidates this assumption and therefore a different carbon price trajectory should be chosen. We show how the optimal carbon price path for remaining well below 2 °C limits CDR demand and analyze requirements for constructing alternatives, which may be easier to implement in reality. We show that warming can be held at well below 2 °C at much lower long-term economic effort and lower CDR deployment and therefore lower risks if carbon prices are high enough in the beginning to ensure target compliance, but increase at a lower rate after carbon neutrality has been reached.

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 Datum: 2021-02-242021-04-152021-04-15
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: Director / Executive Staff / Science & Society
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: Director Edenhofer
Research topic keyword: Carbon Pricing
Research topic keyword: CO2 Removal
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Economics
Model / method: REMIND
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22211-2
OATYPE: Gold - DEAL Springer Nature
MDB-ID: yes - 3211
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Projektname : NAVIGATE - Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climaTE policy making
Grant ID : 821124
Förderprogramm : Horizon 2020 (H2020)
Förderorganisation : European Commission (EC)
Projektname : CEMICS2
Grant ID : SPP 1689
Förderprogramm : -
Förderorganisation : DFG

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Titel: Nature Communications
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 12 Artikelnummer: 2264 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354
Publisher: Springer Nature