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  Quantification of uncertainties in global grazing systems assessment

Fetzel, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Kaplan, J. O., Kastner, T., Kroisleitner, C., Rolinski, S., Searchinger, T., Van Bodegom, P. M., Wirsenius, S., Erb, K.-H. (2017): Quantification of uncertainties in global grazing systems assessment. - Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 31, 7, 1089-1102.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005601

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 Creators:
Fetzel, T.1, Author
Havlik, P.1, Author
Herrero, M.1, Author
Kaplan, J. O.1, Author
Kastner, T.1, Author
Kroisleitner, C.1, Author
Rolinski, Susanne2, Author              
Searchinger, T.1, Author
Van Bodegom, P. M.1, Author
Wirsenius, S.1, Author
Erb, K.-H.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Livestock systems play a key role in global sustainability challenges like food security and climate change, yet many unknowns and large uncertainties prevail. We present a systematic, spatially explicit assessment of uncertainties related to grazing intensity (GI), a key metric for assessing ecological impacts of grazing, by combining existing data sets on (a) grazing feed intake, (b) the spatial distribution of livestock, (c) the extent of grazing land, and (d) its net primary productivity (NPP). An analysis of the resulting 96 maps implies that on average 15% of the grazing land NPP is consumed by livestock. GI is low in most of the world's grazing lands, but hotspots of very high GI prevail in 1% of the total grazing area. The agreement between GI maps is good on one fifth of the world's grazing area, while on the remainder, it is low to very low. Largest uncertainties are found in global drylands and where grazing land bears trees (e.g., the Amazon basin or the Taiga belt). In some regions like India or Western Europe, massive uncertainties even result in GI > 100% estimates. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that the input data for NPP, animal distribution, and grazing area contribute about equally to the total variability in GI maps, while grazing feed intake is a less critical variable. We argue that a general improvement in quality of the available global level data sets is a precondition for improving the understanding of the role of livestock systems in the context of global environmental change or food security.

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 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1002/2016GB005601
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7963
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Model / method: LPJmL
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
 Degree: -

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Title: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 31 (7) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1089 - 1102 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals191