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  More-persistent weak stratospheric polar vortex states linked to cold extremes

Kretschmer, M., Coumou, D., Agel, L., Barlow, M., Tziperman, E., Cohen, J. (2018): More-persistent weak stratospheric polar vortex states linked to cold extremes. - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99, 1, 49-60.
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1

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 Creators:
Kretschmer, Marlene1, Author              
Coumou, Dim1, Author              
Agel, L.2, Author
Barlow, M.2, Author
Tziperman, E.2, Author
Cohen, J.2, Author
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: The extratropical stratosphere in boreal winter is characterized by a strong circumpolar westerly jet, confining the coldest temperatures at high latitudes. The jet, referred to as the stratospheric polar vortex, is predominantly zonal and centered around the pole; however, it does exhibit large variability in wind speed and location. Previous studies showed that a weak stratospheric polar vortex can lead to cold-air outbreaks in the midlatitudes, but the exact relationships and mechanisms are unclear. Particularly, it is unclear whether stratospheric variability has contributed to the observed anomalous cooling trends in midlatitude Eurasia. Using hierarchical clustering, we show that over the last 37 years, the frequency of weak vortex states in mid- to late winter (January and February) has increased, which was accompanied by subsequent cold extremes in midlatitude Eurasia. For this region, 60% of the observed cooling in the era of Arctic amplification, that is, since 1990, can be explained by the increased frequency of weak stratospheric polar vortex states, a number that increases to almost 80% when El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is included as well.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 7653
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Weather
Model / method: Machine Learning
Regional keyword: Europe
Regional keyword: Asia
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Earth System Modes of Operation
 Degree: -

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Title: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 99 (1) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 49 - 60 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals58