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  Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts

Krause, A., Pugh, T. A. M., Bayer, A. D., Li, W., Leung, F., Bondeau, A., Doelman, J. C., Humpenöder, F., Anthoni, P., Bodirsky, B. L., Ciais, P., Müller, C., Murray-Tortarolo, G., Olin, S., Popp, A., Sitch, S., Stehfest, E., Arneth, A. (2018): Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts. - Global Change Biology, 24, 7, 3025-3038.
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14144

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 Creators:
Krause, A.1, Author
Pugh, T. A. M.1, Author
Bayer, A. D.1, Author
Li, W.1, Author
Leung, F.1, Author
Bondeau, A.1, Author
Doelman, J. C.1, Author
Humpenöder, Florian2, Author              
Anthoni, P.1, Author
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon2, Author              
Ciais, P.1, Author
Müller, Christoph2, Author              
Murray-Tortarolo, G.1, Author
Olin, S.1, Author
Popp, Alexander2, Author              
Sitch, S.1, Author
Stehfest, E.1, Author
Arneth, A.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land‐based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land‐based mitigation scenarios from two land‐use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ‐GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land‐use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land‐use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land‐use change. Differences between land‐use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land‐based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14144
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 8361
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: CO2 Removal
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: MAgPIE
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Degree: -

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Title: Global Change Biology
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 24 (7) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 3025 - 3038 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals192