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  The effectiveness of climate clubs under Donald Trump

Sprinz, D. F., Sælen, H., Underdal, A., Hovi, J. (2018): The effectiveness of climate clubs under Donald Trump. - Climate Policy, 18, 7, 828-838.
https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2017.1410090

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 Creators:
Sprinz, Detlef F.1, Author              
Sælen, H.2, Author
Underdal, A.2, Author
Hovi, J.2, Author
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: On 1 June 2017, President Trump announced that the US intends to leave the Paris Agreement if no alternative terms acceptable to his administration can be agreed upon. In this article, an agent-based model of bottom-up climate mitigation clubs is used to derive the impact that lack of US participation may have on the membership of such clubs and their emissions coverage. We systematically analyse the prospects for climate mitigation clubs, depending on which of three conceivable roles the US takes on: as a leader (for benchmarking), as a follower (i.e. willing to join climate mitigation clubs initiated by others if this is in its best interest) or as an outsider (i.e. staying outside of any climate mitigation club no matter what). We investigate these prospects for three types of incentives for becoming a member: club goods, conditional commitments and side-payments. Our results show that lack of US leadership significantly constrains climate clubs’ potential. Lack of US willingness to follow others’ lead is an additional, but smaller constraint. Only in a few cases will US withdrawal entail widespread departures by other countries. We conclude that climate mitigation clubs can function without the participation of an important GHG emitter, given that other major emitters show leadership, although these clubs will rarely cover more than 50% of global emissions.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2017.1410090
PIKDOMAIN: Transdisciplinary Concepts & Methods - Research Domain IV
eDoc: 7941
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Research topic keyword: Global Commons
Model / method: Agent-based Models
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Social Metabolism and Impacts
 Degree: -

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Title: Climate Policy
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 18 (7) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 828 - 838 Identifier: Other: Taylor & Francis
Other: 1752-7457
ISSN: 1469-3062
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/climate-policy