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  Global forests are influenced by the legacies of past inter-annual temperature variability

Hansen, W. D., Schwartz, N. B., Williams, A. P., Albrich, K., Kueppers, L. M., Rammig, A., Reyer, C. P. O., Staver, A. C., Seidl, R. (2022): Global forests are influenced by the legacies of past inter-annual temperature variability. - Environmental Research: Ecology, 1, 1, 011001.
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-664X/ac6e4a

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 Creators:
Hansen, Winslow D.1, Author
Schwartz, Naomi B.1, Author
Williams, A. Park1, Author
Albrich, Katharina1, Author
Kueppers, Lara M.1, Author
Rammig, Anja1, Author
Reyer, Christopher P. O.2, Author              
Staver, A. Carla1, Author
Seidl, Rupert1, Author
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Inter-annual climate variability (hereafter climate variability) is increasing in many forested regions due to climate change. This variability could have larger near-term impacts on forests than decadal shifts in mean climate, but how forests will respond remains poorly resolved, particularly at broad scales. Individual trees, and even forest communities, often have traits and ecological strategies—the legacies of exposure to past variable conditions—that confer tolerance to subsequent climate variability. However, whether local legacies also shape global forest responses is unknown. Our objective was to assess how past and current climate variability influences global forest productivity. We hypothesized that forests exposed to large climate variability in the past would better tolerate current climate variability than forests for which past climate was relatively stable. We used historical (1950–1969) and contemporary (2000–2019) temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and the remotely sensed enhanced vegetation index (EVI) to quantify how historical and contemporary climate variability relate to patterns of contemporary forest productivity. Consistent with our hypothesis, forests exposed to large temperature variability in the past were more tolerant of contemporary temperature variability than forests where past temperatures were less variable. Forests were 19-fold times less sensitive to contemporary temperature variability where historical inter-annual temperature variability was 0.66 °C (two standard deviations) greater than the global average historical temperature variability. We also found that larger increases in temperature variability between the two study periods often eroded the tolerance conferred by the legacy effects of historical temperature variability. However, the hypothesis was not supported in the case of precipitation and VPD variability, potentially due to physiological tradeoffs inherent in how trees cope with dry conditions. We conclude that the sensitivity of forest productivity to imminent increases in temperature variability may be partially predictable based on the legacies of past conditions.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2022-08-302022-12
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 11
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/2752-664X/ac6e4a
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Working Group: Forest and Ecosystem Resilience
Research topic keyword: Adaptation
Research topic keyword: Biodiversity
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Forest
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Environmental Research: Ecology
Source Genre: Journal, other, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 1 (1) Sequence Number: 011001 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/environmental_research_ecology
Publisher: IOP Publishing