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  Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Grant, L., Vanderkelen, I., Gudmundsson, L., Tan, Z., Perroud, M., Stepanenko, V. M., Debolskiy, A. V., Droppers, B., Janssen, A. B. G., Woolway, R. I., Choulga, M., Balsamo, G., Kirillin, G., Schewe, J., Zhao, F., Vega del Valle, I., Golub, M., Pierson, D., Marcé, R., Seneviratne, S. I., Thiery, W. (2021): Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing. - Nature Geoscience, 14, 11, 849-854.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00833-x

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 Creators:
Grant, Luke1, Author
Vanderkelen, Inne1, Author
Gudmundsson, Lukas1, Author
Tan, Zeli1, Author
Perroud, Marjorie1, Author
Stepanenko, Victor M.1, Author
Debolskiy, Andrey V.1, Author
Droppers, Bram1, Author
Janssen, Annette B. G.1, Author
Woolway, R. Iestyn1, Author
Choulga, Margarita1, Author
Balsamo, Gianpaolo1, Author
Kirillin, Georgiy1, Author
Schewe, Jacob2, Author              
Zhao, Fang2, Author              
Vega del Valle, Iliusi2, Author              
Golub, Malgorzata1, Author
Pierson, Don1, Author
Marcé, Rafael1, Author
Seneviratne, Sonia I.1, Author
Thiery, Wim1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °Cair–1, –0.033 m °Cair–1 and –9.7 d °Cair–1, respectively). These impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide.

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 Dates: 2021-10-182021-11-01
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00833-x
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: Attribution
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
MDB-ID: No data to archive
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Geoscience
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 14 (11) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 849 - 854 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals355