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  Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century

Gidden, M. J., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Fujimori, S., Luderer, G., Kriegler, E., Vuuren, D. P. v., Berg, M. v. d., Feng, L., Klein, D., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Harmsen, M., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hilaire, J., Hoesly, R., Horing, J., Popp, A., Stehfest, E., Takahashi, K. (2019): Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century. - Geoscientific Model Development, 12, 4, 1443-1475.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019

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Gidden, M. J.1, Autor
Riahi, K.1, Autor
Smith, S. J.1, Autor
Fujimori, S.1, Autor
Luderer, Gunnar2, Autor              
Kriegler, Elmar2, Autor              
Vuuren, D. P. van1, Autor
Berg, M. van den1, Autor
Feng, L.1, Autor
Klein, D.1, Autor
Calvin, K.1, Autor
Doelman, J. C.1, Autor
Frank, S.1, Autor
Fricko, O.1, Autor
Harmsen, M.1, Autor
Hasegawa, T.1, Autor
Havlik, P.1, Autor
Hilaire, J.1, Autor
Hoesly, R.1, Autor
Horing, J.1, Autor
Popp, Alexander2, Autor              Stehfest, E.1, AutorTakahashi, K.1, Autor mehr..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions species and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emissions source spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal for exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios is bounded on the low end by a 1.9 W m−2 scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with end-of-century temperatures well below 2 ∘C, and on the high end by a 8.5 W m−2 scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 ∘C over pre-industrial levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.

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 Datum: 2019
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
eDoc: 8388
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Decarbonization  
Model / method: MAgPIE
Model / method: REMIND
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Energy Systems
Working Group: Research Software Engineering for Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Geoscientific Model Development
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 12 (4) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 1443 - 1475 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals185