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  Influence of anthropogenic climate change on planetary wave resonance and extreme weather events

Mann, M., Rahmstorf, S., Kornhuber, K., Steinmann, B. A., Miller, S. K., Coumou, D. (2017): Influence of anthropogenic climate change on planetary wave resonance and extreme weather events. - Scientific Reports, 7, 45242.
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep45242

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Mann, M.1, Author
Rahmstorf, Stefan2, Author              
Kornhuber, Kai2, Author              
Steinmann, B. A.1, Author
Miller, S. K.1, Author
Coumou, Dim2, Author              
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

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 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/srep45242
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 7571
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Weather
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Earth System Model Development
Working Group: Earth System Modes of Operation
 Degree: -

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Title: Scientific Reports
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, OA
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 7 Sequence Number: 45242 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals2_395