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  Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales

Lange, S., Volkholz, J., Geiger, T., Zhao, F., Vega, I., Veldkamp, T., Reyer, C. P. O., Warszawski, L., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Schewe, J., Bresch, D. N., Büchner, M., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Dury, M., Emanuel, K., Folberth, C., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Hanasaki, N., Henrot, A., Hickler, T., Honda, Y., Ito, A., Khabarov, N., Koutroulis, A., Liu, W., Müller, C., Nishina, K., Ostberg, S., Mueller Schmied, H., Seneviratne, S. I., Stacke, T., Steinkamp, J., Thiery, W., Wada, Y., Willner, S., Yang, H., Yoshikawa, M., Yue, C., Frieler, K. (2020): Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales. - Earth's Future, 8, 12, e2020EF001616.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001616

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 Urheber:
Lange, Stefan1, Autor              
Volkholz, Jan1, Autor              
Geiger, Tobias1, Autor              
Zhao, Fang2, Autor
Vega, Iliusi1, Autor
Veldkamp, Ted2, Autor
Reyer, Christopher P. O.1, Autor              
Warszawski, Lila1, Autor              
Huber, Veronika2, Autor
Jägermeyr, Jonas1, Autor              
Schewe, Jacob1, Autor              
Bresch, David N.2, Autor
Büchner, Matthias1, Autor              
Chang, Jinfeng2, Autor
Ciais, Philippe2, Autor
Dury, Mary2, Autor
Emanuel, Kerry2, Autor
Folberth, Christian2, Autor
Gerten, Dieter1, Autor              
Gosling, Simon N.2, Autor
Grillakis, Manolis2, AutorHanasaki, Naota2, AutorHenrot, Alexandra‐Jane2, AutorHickler, Thomas2, AutorHonda, Yasushi2, AutorIto, Akihiko2, AutorKhabarov, Nikolay2, AutorKoutroulis, Aristeidis2, AutorLiu, Wenfeng2, AutorMüller, Christoph1, Autor              Nishina, Kazuya2, AutorOstberg, Sebastian1, Autor              Mueller Schmied, Hannes2, AutorSeneviratne, Sonia I.2, AutorStacke, Tobias2, AutorSteinkamp, Jörg2, AutorThiery, Wim2, AutorWada, Yoshihide2, AutorWillner, Sven1, Autor              Yang, Hong2, AutorYoshikawa, Minoru2, AutorYue, Chao2, AutorFrieler, Katja1, Autor               mehr..
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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Schlagwörter: Wiley DEAL
 Zusammenfassung: The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than fivefold increase in cross‐category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia.

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 Datum: 2020-10-302020-11-262020-11-26
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: MDB-ID: yes - 3052
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: LPJmL
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001616
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Working Group: Forest and Ecosystem Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Data-Centric Modeling of Cross-Sectoral Impacts
Working Group: Impacts of Climate Change on Human Population Dynamics
Working Group: Numerical analysis of global economic impacts
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Quelle 1

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Titel: Earth's Future
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Urheber:
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 8 (12) Artikelnummer: e2020EF001616 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/170925
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)