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  Exploring the possibility space: taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models

Keppo, I., Butnar, R. I., Bauer, N., Caspani, M., Edelenbosch, O., Emmerling, J., Fragkos, P., Guivarch, C., Harmsen, M., Lefèvre, J., Le Gallic, T., Leimbach, M., McDowall, W., Mercure, J.-F., Schaeffer, R., Trutnevyte, E., Wagner, F. (2021): Exploring the possibility space: taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models. - Environmental Research Letters, 16, 5, 053006.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d8

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 Creators:
Keppo, I.1, Author
Butnar, R. I.1, Author
Bauer, Nicolas2, Author              
Caspani, M.1, Author
Edelenbosch, O.1, Author
Emmerling, J.1, Author
Fragkos, P.1, Author
Guivarch, C.1, Author
Harmsen, M.1, Author
Lefèvre, J.1, Author
Le Gallic, T.1, Author
Leimbach, Marian2, Author              
McDowall, W.1, Author
Mercure, J.-F.1, Author
Schaeffer, R.1, Author
Trutnevyte, E.1, Author
Wagner, F.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have emerged as key tools for building and assessing long term climate mitigation scenarios. Due to their central role in the recent IPCC assessments, and international climate policy analyses more generally, and the high uncertainties related to future projections, IAMs have been critically assessed by scholars from different fields receiving various critiques ranging from adequacy of their methods to how their results are used and communicated. Although IAMs are conceptually diverse and evolved in very different directions, they tend to be criticised under the umbrella of 'IAMs'. Here we first briefly summarise the IAM landscape and how models differ from each other. We then proceed to discuss six prominent critiques emerging from the recent literature, reflect and respond to them in the light of IAM diversity and ongoing work and suggest ways forward. The six critiques relate to (a) representation of heterogeneous actors in the models, (b) modelling of technology diffusion and dynamics, (c) representation of capital markets, (d) energy-economy feedbacks, (e) policy scenarios, and (f) interpretation and use of model results.

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 Dates: 2021-02-122021-04-292021-05-15
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d8
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Energy
Model / method: PIAM
Model / method: REMIND
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 16 (5) Sequence Number: 053006 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326