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  Aligning climate scenarios to emissions inventories shifts global benchmarks

Gidden, M. J., Gasser, T., Grassi, G., Forsell, N., Janssens, I., Lamb, W. F., Minx, J. C., Nicholls, Z., Steinhauser, J., Riahi, K. (2023): Aligning climate scenarios to emissions inventories shifts global benchmarks. - Nature, 624, 102-108.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06724-y

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 Creators:
Gidden, Matthew J.1, Author
Gasser, Thomas1, Author
Grassi, Giacomo1, Author
Forsell, Nicklas1, Author
Janssens, Iris1, Author
Lamb, William F.1, Author
Minx, Jan C.1, Author
Nicholls, Zebedee1, Author
Steinhauser, Jan2, Author              
Riahi, Keywan1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Taking stock of global progress towards achieving the Paris Agreement requires consistently measuring aggregate national actions and pledges against modelled mitigation pathways1. However, national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) and scientific assessments of anthropogenic emissions follow different accounting conventions for land-based carbon fluxes resulting in a large difference in the present emission estimates2,3, a gap that will evolve over time. Using state-of-the-art methodologies4 and a land carbon-cycle emulator5, we align the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-assessed mitigation pathways with the NGHGIs to make a comparison. We find that the key global mitigation benchmarks become harder to achieve when calculated using the NGHGI conventions, requiring both earlier net-zero CO2 timing and lower cumulative emissions. Furthermore, weakening natural carbon removal processes such as carbon fertilization can mask anthropogenic land-based removal efforts, with the result that land-based carbon fluxes in NGHGIs may ultimately become sources of emissions by 2100. Our results are important for the Global Stocktake6, suggesting that nations will need to increase the collective ambition of their climate targets to remain consistent with the global temperature goals.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-02-132023-10-062023-11-222023-12-07
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 22
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06724-y
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see DOI)
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Land-Use Management
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
Regional keyword: Global
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Decarbonization
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 Degree: -

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Project name : RESCUE
Grant ID : 101056939
Funding program : Horizon Europe (HE)
Funding organization : European Commission (EC)
Project name : ESM2025
Grant ID : 101003536
Funding program : Horizon 2020 (H2020)
Funding organization : European Commission (EC)

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Title: Nature
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 624 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 102 - 108 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals353
Publisher: Nature