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  Understanding the Drivers of Coastal Flood Exposure and Risk From 1860 to 2100

Lincke, D., Hinkel, J., Mengel, M., Nicholls, R. J. (2022): Understanding the Drivers of Coastal Flood Exposure and Risk From 1860 to 2100. - Earth's Future, 10, 12, e2021EF002584.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002584

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 Urheber:
Lincke, Daniel1, Autor
Hinkel, Jochen1, Autor
Mengel, Matthias2, Autor              
Nicholls, Robert J.1, Autor
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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Schlagwörter: sea-level rise, coastal flood exposure, coastal flood risk, attribution
 Zusammenfassung: Global coastal flood exposure (population and assets) has been growing since the beginning of the industrial age and is likely to continue to grow through 21st century. Three main drivers are responsible: (a) climate-related mean sea-level change, (b) vertical land movement contributing to relative sea-level rise, and (c) socio-economic development. This paper attributes growing coastal exposure and flood risk from 1860 to 2100 to these three drivers. For historic flood exposure (1860?2005) we find that the roughly six-fold increase in population exposure and 53-fold increase in asset exposure are almost completely explained by socio-economic development (>97% for population and >99% for assets). For future exposure (2005?2100), assuming a middle-of-the-road regionalized socio-economic scenario (SSP2) without coastal migration and sea-level rise according to RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, climate-change induced sea-level rise will become the most important driver for the growth in population exposure, while growth in asset exposure will still be mainly determined by socio-economic development.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2021-12-232022-10-312022-11-172022-12
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 17
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002584
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: Global
Research topic keyword: Sea-level Rise
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Adaptation
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Earth's Future
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Urheber:
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 10 (12) Artikelnummer: e2021EF002584 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/170925
Publisher: Wiley