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  Beyond land-use intensity: Assessing future global crop productivity growth under different socioeconomic pathways 

Wang, X., Dietrich, J. P., Lotze-Campen, H., Biewald, A., Stevanović, M., Bodirsky, B. L., Brümmer, B., Popp, A. (2020 online): Beyond land-use intensity: Assessing future global crop productivity growth under different socioeconomic pathways . - Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 160, 120208.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120208

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24331 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24331_1
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Wang, Xiaoxi1, Author              
Dietrich, Jan Philipp1, Author              
Lotze-Campen, Hermann1, Author              
Biewald, Anne1, Author              
Stevanović, Miodrag1, Author              
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon1, Author              
Brümmer, Bernhard2, Author
Popp, Alexander1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Productivity growth is essential to meet the increasing global agricultural demand in the future, driven by the growing world population and income. This study develops a hybrid approach to assess future global crop productivity in a holistic way using different productivity measures and improves the understanding of productivity implications of socioeconomic factors by contrasting different shared socioeconomic pathway assumptions. The results show that the global productivity is likely to continue to grow, whereas the productivity growth varies pronouncedly among different future socioeconomic conditions. The fast growth of total factor and partial factor productivity can be reached when slow population growth and high economic growth entail moderate food demand and low investment risks. In contrast, high population growth and low economic growth could lead to relatively high land-use intensity due to the extreme pressure on agricultural production, however, associated with low total factor productivity growth. The model results indicate that the ratio of the total factor productivity growth to cropland expansion has significant impacts on food prices, with increasing prices when cropland increases faster than productivity, and vice versa. Investing in productivity improvement appears to be an effective means of ensuring food availability and sparing cropland, which can contribute to the achievement of sustainable development goals.

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 Dates: 2020-07-172020-08-04
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
MDB-ID: pending
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120208
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Title: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 160 Sequence Number: 120208 Start / End Page: - Identifier: Other: Elsevier
Other: 1873-5509
ISSN: 0040-1625
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/technological-forecasting-social-change