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  Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming

Dottori, F., Szewczyk, W., Ciscar, J.-C., Zhao, F., Alfieri, L., Hirabayashi, Y., Bianchi, A., Mongelli, I., Frieler, K., Betts, R. A., Feyen, L. (2018): Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming. - Nature Climate Change, 8, 9, 781-786.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z

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 Creators:
Dottori, F.1, Author
Szewczyk, W.1, Author
Ciscar, J.-C.1, Author
Zhao, Fang2, Author              
Alfieri, L.1, Author
Hirabayashi, Y.1, Author
Bianchi, A.1, Author
Mongelli, I.1, Author
Frieler, Katja2, Author              
Betts, R. A.1, Author
Feyen, L.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: River floods are among some of the costliest natural disasters1, but their socio-economic impacts under contrasting warming levels remain little explored2. Here, using a multi-model framework, we estimate human losses, direct economic damage and subsequent indirect impacts (welfare losses) under a range of temperature (1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming)3 and socio-economic scenarios, assuming current vulnerability levels and in the absence of future adaptation. With temperature increases of 1.5 °C, depending on the socio-economic scenario, it is found that human losses from flooding could rise by 70–83%, direct flood damage by 160–240%, with a relative welfare reduction between 0.23 and 0.29%. In a 2 °C world, by contrast, the death toll is 50% higher, direct economic damage doubles and welfare losses grow to 0.4%. Impacts are notably higher under 3 C warming, but at the same time, variability between ensemble members also increases, leading to greater uncertainty regarding flood impacts at higher warming levels. Flood impacts are further shown to have an uneven regional distribution, with the greatest losses observed in the Asian continent at all analysed warming levels. It is clear that increased adaptation and mitigation efforts—perhaps through infrastructural investment4—are needed to offset increasing risk of river floods in the future.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 8399
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Economics
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Climate Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 8 (9) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 781 - 786 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140414