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  Combined effects of climate change and agricultural intensification on soil erosion in uphill shifting cultivation in Northeast India

Schröder, L. S., Rasche, L., Jantke, K., Mishra, G., Lange, S., Eschenbach, A., Schneider, U. A. (2024): Combined effects of climate change and agricultural intensification on soil erosion in uphill shifting cultivation in Northeast India. - Land Degradation & Development, 35, 2, 670-686.
https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.4944

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 Creators:
Schröder, Lea S.1, Author
Rasche, Livia1, Author
Jantke, Kerstin1, Author
Mishra, Gaurav1, Author
Lange, Stefan2, Author              
Eschenbach, Annette1, Author
Schneider, Uwe A.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Shifting cultivation will face increasing pressure from erosion-related land degradation caused by rising cultivation intensities and climate change. However, empirical knowledge about future trends of soil erosion and thus land degradation in shifting cultivation systems is limited. We use the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to first explore the combined effects of climate change and agricultural intensification on soil erosion of uphill shifting cultivation systems, using six surveyed soil profiles. We assess interactions between climate change, the length of the fallow period, and slope inclinations for a near (2021–2050) and far (2071–2100) future period, considering three climate scenarios, five climate models, fallow periods between one and 20 years, and slopes between five and 70% steepness. Our results show a significant nonlinear relationship between global warming and erosion. Until the end of the century, erosion is estimated to increase by a factor of 1.2, 2.2, and 3.1 under the SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively, compared with the historical baseline (1985–2014). Combined effects from climate change, fallow length, and slope inclination indicate that steep slopes require longer fallow periods, with an increase of slope from 5% to 10% multiplying the required fallow length by a mean factor of 2.5, and that fallow periods will need to be extended under higher global warming if erosion rates are to remain at current levels. These findings are novel as they link climate change effects on shifting cultivation systems to different slopes and fallow regimes, making an important contribution to understanding future erosion dynamics of traditional smallholder production systems in mountainous terrain, with relevant implications for policies on agricultural intensification.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-03-022023-09-252023-10-192024-01-30
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 17
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1002/ldr.4944
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Data-Centric Modeling of Cross-Sectoral Impacts
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Regional keyword: Asia
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Land use
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Land Degradation & Development
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 35 (2) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 670 - 686 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/1099-145X
Publisher: Wiley