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Abstract:
Transformation pathways for the land sector in line with the Paris Agreement
depend on the assumption of globally implemented greenhouse gas (GHG)
emission pricing, and in some cases also on inclusive socio-economic devel-
opment and sustainable land-use practices. In such pathways, the majority of
GHG emission reductions in the land system is expected to come from low-
and middle-income countries, which currently account for a large share of
emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). However,
in low- and middle-income countries the economic, financial and institutional
barriers for such transformative changes are high. Here, we show that if
sustainable development in the land sector remained highly unequal and
limited to high-income countries only, global AFOLU emissions would remain
substantial throughout the 21st century. Our model-based projections high-
light that overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in
line with the Paris Agreement. While also a scenario purely based on either
global GHG emission pricing or on inclusive socio-economic development
would achieve the stringent emissions reductions required, only the latter
ensures major co-benefits for other Sustainable Development Goals, especially
in low- and middle-income region.
