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  Estimation of changes in runoff and its sources in response to future climate change in a critical zone of the Karakoram mountainous region, Pakistan in the near and far future

Adnan, M., Liu, S., Saifullah, M., Iqbal, M., Saddique, Q., Ul Hussan, W., Latif, Y. (2024): Estimation of changes in runoff and its sources in response to future climate change in a critical zone of the Karakoram mountainous region, Pakistan in the near and far future. - Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 15, 1, 2291330.
https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2291330

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Estimation of changes in runoff and its sources in response to future climate change in a critical zone of the Karakoram mountainous region Pakistan .pdf (Publisher version), 5MB
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 Creators:
Adnan, Muhammad1, Author
Liu, Shiyin1, Author
Saifullah, Muhammad1, Author
Iqbal, Mudassar1, Author
Saddique, Qaisar2, Author              
Ul Hussan, Waqas1, Author
Latif, Yasir1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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Free keywords: Gilgit River basin; general circulation model; shared socioeconomic pathways; UBC WM; climate change; runoff
 Abstract: The inconsistent pattern of precipitation, a shift in the seasonality of river flows, and the early onset of snow and glacier melt in recent decades across river basins of High Mountain Asia (HMA) has compelled us to further investigate future variations in sources of runoff under projected climate change scenarios. This will help in determining the timing and magnitude of runoff components and this will help in management of future water resources. The current study employed the University of British Columbia Watershed Model (UBC WM) to estimate the spatiotemporal variations in simulated runoff components (i.e. snowmelt, glacier melt, rainfall-runoff, and baseflow) and their relative contribution to total runoff of Gilgit River regarding the baseline period (1981–2010) in near (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) under low (SSP1), medium (SSP2) and high (SSP5) emission scenarios. A significant increase in the magnitude of mean annual temperature and precipitation is expected in the near future (2021–2050) than far future (2071–2100) under most SSPs. Moreover, high-altitude stations of the Gilgit River basin are expected to experience more warming in the near and far future than low altitudes under all SSPs. On average, regarding the baseline period, the simulated runoff is projected to increase in the near (27%, 30%, and 33%) and far future (30%, 53%, and 91%) under SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5, respectively. Moreover, an early onset of snow/glacier melting is predicted in the far future due to an increase in summer air temperature and a decline in winter (DJF) precipitation. Besides, the rise in high altitude temperature is expected to cause the melting of snow/glaciers even above 6000 m elevation in the far future.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-08-172023-11-302023-12-262024-01-01
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 35
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1080/19475705.2023.2291330
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Regional keyword: Asia
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 15 (1) Sequence Number: 2291330 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals2_192
Publisher: Taylor & Francis