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  Intercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models

Meiler, S., Vogt, T., Bloemendaal, N., Ciullo, A., Lee, C.-Y., Camargo, S. J., Emanuel, K., Bresch, D. N. (2022): Intercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models. - Nature Communications, 13, 6156.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33918-1

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Meiler, Simona1, Autor
Vogt, Thomas2, Autor              
Bloemendaal, Nadia1, Autor
Ciullo, Alessio1, Autor
Lee, Chia-Ying1, Autor
Camargo, Suzana J.1, Autor
Emanuel, Kerry1, Autor
Bresch, David N.1, Autor
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause devastating damage to life and property. Historical TC data is scarce, complicating adequate TC risk assessments. Synthetic TC models are specifically designed to overcome this scarcity. While these models have been evaluated on their ability to simulate TC activity, no study to date has focused on model performance and applicability in TC risk assessments. This study performs the intercomparison of four different global-scale synthetic TC datasets in the impact space, comparing impact return period curves, probability of rare events, and hazard intensity distribution over land. We find that the model choice influences the costliest events, particularly in basins with limited TC activity. Modelled direct economic damages in the North Indian Ocean, for instance, range from 40 to 246 billion USD for the 100-yr event over the four hazard sets. We furthermore provide guidelines for the suitability of the different synthetic models for various research purposes.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2022-10-182022-10-18
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 12
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33918-1
MDB-ID: No data to archive
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: Open Source Software
Regional keyword: Global
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Working Group: Event-based modeling of economic impacts of climate change
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Nature Communications
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 13 Artikelnummer: 6156 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354
Publisher: Nature