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  Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations

Tesfay, D., Wei, P., Zheng, Y., Duan, J., Kurths, J. (2020): Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations. - Applied Mathematics and Computation, 369, 124868.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2019.124868

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Tesfay, D.1, Autor
Wei, P.1, Autor
Zheng, Y.1, Autor
Duan, J.1, Autor
Kurths, Jürgen2, Autor              
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: In this work we study the impact of non-Gaussian α-stable Lévy motion on transitions between metastable equilibrium states (or attractors) in a stochastic Stommel two-compartment model for the thermohaline circulation. By maximizing probability density of the solution process associated with a nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, we compute maximal likely pathways and identify corresponding maximal likely stable equilibrium states. Our numerical results indicate that random fluctuations with small intensity induces a weakened thermohaline circulation when the Lévy noise stability index is from 0.1 to 0.7.

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 Datum: 2020
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
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 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
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 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2019.124868
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
eDoc: 8911
Working Group: Network- and machine-learning-based prediction of extreme events
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Titel: Applied Mathematics and Computation
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 369 Artikelnummer: 124868 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/applied-mathematics-computation
Publisher: Elsevier