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  Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

Frieler, K., Lange, S., Piontek, F., Reyer, C. P. O., Schewe, J., Warszawski, L., Zhao, F., Chini, L., Denvil, S., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Halladay, K., Hurtt, G., Mengel, M., Murakami, D., Ostberg, S., Popp, A., Riva, R., Stevanović, M., Suzuki, T., Volkholz, J., Burke, E., Ciais, P., Ebi, K., Eddy, T. D., Elliott, J., Galbraith, E., Gosling, S. N., Hattermann, F. F., Hickler, T., Hinkel, J., Hof, C., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Krysanova, V., Marcé, R., Müller Schmied, H., Mouratiadou, I., Pierson, D., Tittensor, D. P., Vautard, R., Vliet, M. v., Biber, M. F., Betts, R. A., Bodirsky, B. L., Deryng, D., Frolking, S., Jones, C. D., Lotze, H. K., Lotze-Campen, H., Sahajpal, R., Thonicke, K., Tian, H., Yamagata, Y. (2017): Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). - Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 12, 4321-4345.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017

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Frieler, Katja1, Autor              
Lange, Stefan1, Autor              
Piontek, Franziska1, Autor              
Reyer, Christopher P. O.1, Autor              
Schewe, Jacob1, Autor              
Warszawski, Lila1, Autor              
Zhao, Fang1, Autor              
Chini, L.2, Autor
Denvil, S.2, Autor
Emanuel, K.2, Autor
Geiger, Tobias1, Autor              
Halladay, K.2, Autor
Hurtt, G.2, Autor
Mengel, Matthias1, Autor              
Murakami, D.2, Autor
Ostberg, Sebastian1, Autor              
Popp, Alexander1, Autor              
Riva, R.2, Autor
Stevanović, Miodrag1, Autor              
Suzuki, T.2, Autor
Volkholz, Jan1, Autor              Burke, E.2, AutorCiais, P.2, AutorEbi, K.2, AutorEddy, T. D.2, AutorElliott, J.2, AutorGalbraith, E.2, AutorGosling, S. N.2, AutorHattermann, Fred Fokko1, Autor              Hickler, T.2, AutorHinkel, J.2, AutorHof, C.2, AutorHuber, Veronika1, Autor              Jägermeyr, Jonas1, Autor              Krysanova, Valentina1, Autor              Marcé, R.2, AutorMüller Schmied, H.2, AutorMouratiadou, Ioanna1, Autor              Pierson, D.2, AutorTittensor, D. P.2, AutorVautard, R.2, AutorVliet, M. van2, AutorBiber, M. F.2, AutorBetts, R. A.2, AutorBodirsky, Benjamin Leon1, Autor              Deryng, D.2, AutorFrolking, S.2, AutorJones, C. D.2, AutorLotze, H. K.2, AutorLotze-Campen, Hermann1, Autor              Sahajpal, R.2, AutorThonicke, Kirsten1, Autor              Tian, H.2, AutorYamagata, Y.2, Autor mehr..
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Zusammenfassung: In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

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 Datum: 2017
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
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 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 7816
Working Group: Ecosystems in Transition
Working Group: Forest and Ecosystem Resilience
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Data-Centric Modeling of Cross-Sectoral Impacts
Working Group: Impacts of Climate Change on Human Population Dynamics
Working Group: Macroeconomic modeling of climate change mitigation and impacts
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Geoscientific Model Development
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 10 (12) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 4321 - 4345 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals185