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  Key determinants of global land-use projections

Stehfest, E., Zeist, W.-J.-v., Valin, H., Havlik, P., Popp, A., Kyle, P., Tabeau, A., Mason-D'Croz, D., Hasegawa, T., Bodirsky, B. L., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Fujimori, S., Humpenöder, F., Lotze-Campen, H., Meijl, H. v., Wiebe, K. (2019): Key determinants of global land-use projections. - Nature Communications, 10, 2166.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w

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Stehfest, E.1, Autor
Zeist, W.-J. van1, Autor
Valin, H.1, Autor
Havlik, P.1, Autor
Popp, Alexander2, Autor              
Kyle, P.1, Autor
Tabeau, A.1, Autor
Mason-D'Croz, D.1, Autor
Hasegawa, T.1, Autor
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon2, Autor              
Calvin, K.1, Autor
Doelman, J. C.1, Autor
Fujimori, S.1, Autor
Humpenöder, Florian2, Autor              
Lotze-Campen, Hermann2, Autor              
Meijl, H. van1, Autor
Wiebe, K.1, Autor
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.

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 Datum: 2019
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
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 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
eDoc: 8506
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Land-Use Management
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Titel: Nature Communications
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 10 Artikelnummer: 2166 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354