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  Livestock and human use of land: Productivity trends and dietary choices as drivers of future land and carbon dynamics

Weindl, I., Popp, A., Bodirsky, B. L., Rolinski, S., Lotze-Campen, H., Biewald, A., Humpenöder, F., Dietrich, J. P., Stevanović, M. (2017): Livestock and human use of land: Productivity trends and dietary choices as drivers of future land and carbon dynamics. - Global and Planetary Change, 159, 1-10.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.10.002

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 Creators:
Weindl, Isabelle1, Author              
Popp, Alexander1, Author              
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon1, Author              
Rolinski, Susanne1, Author              
Lotze-Campen, Hermann1, Author              
Biewald, Anne1, Author              
Humpenöder, Florian1, Author              
Dietrich, Jan Philipp1, Author              
Stevanović, Miodrag1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Land use change has been the primary driving force of human alteration of terrestrial ecosystems. With 80% of agricultural land dedicated to livestock production, the sector is an important lever to attenuate land requirements for food production and carbon emissions from land use change. In this study, we quantify impacts of changing human diets and livestock productivity on land dynamics and depletion of carbon stored in vegetation, litter and soils. Across all investigated productivity pathways, lower consumption of livestock products can substantially reduce deforestation (47–55%) and cumulative carbon losses (34–57%). On the supply side, already minor productivity growth in extensive livestock production systems leads to substantial CO2 emission abatement, but the emission saving potential of productivity gains in intensive systems is limited, also involving trade-offs with soil carbon stocks. If accounting for uncertainties related to future trade restrictions, crop yields and pasture productivity, the range of projected carbon savings from changing diets increases to 23–78%. Highest abatement of carbon emissions (63–78%) can be achieved if reduced consumption of animal-based products is combined with sustained investments into productivity increases in plant production. Our analysis emphasizes the importance to integrate demand- and supply-side oriented mitigation strategies and to combine efforts in the crop and livestock sector to enable synergies for climate protection.

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 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.10.002
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
eDoc: 7761
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Model / method: MAgPIE
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Research Software Engineering for Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Degree: -

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Title: Global and Planetary Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 159 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1 - 10 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals190