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  Reconstruction of hourly coastal water levels and counterfactuals without sea level rise for impact attribution

Treu, S., Muis, S., Dangendorf, S., Wahl, T., Oelsmann, J., Heinicke, S., Frieler, K., Mengel, M. (2024): Reconstruction of hourly coastal water levels and counterfactuals without sea level rise for impact attribution. - Earth System Science Data, 16, 2, 1121-1136.
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024

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https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.749905 (Supplementary material)
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Dataset
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8322750 (Supplementary material)
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Input data
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10359838 (Supplementary material)
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10354898 (Supplementary material)
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 Creators:
Treu, Simon1, Author              
Muis, Sanne2, Author
Dangendorf, Sönke2, Author
Wahl, Thomas2, Author
Oelsmann, Julius2, Author
Heinicke, Stefanie1, Author              
Frieler, Katja1, Author              
Mengel, Matthias1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Rising seas are a threat to human and natural systems along coastlines. The relation between global warming and sea level rise is established, but the quantification of impacts of historical sea level rise on a global scale is largely absent. To foster such quantification, here we present a reconstruction of historical hourly (1979–2015) and monthly (1900–2015) coastal water levels and a corresponding counterfactual without long-term trends in sea level. The dataset pair allows for impact attribution studies that quantify the contribution of sea level rise to observed changes in coastal systems following the definition of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Impacts are ultimately caused by water levels that are relative to the local land height, which makes the inclusion of vertical land motion a necessary step. Also, many impacts are driven by sub-daily extreme water levels. To capture these aspects, the factual data combine reconstructed geocentric sea level on a monthly timescale since 1900, vertical land motion since 1900 and hourly storm-tide variations since 1979. The inclusion of observation-based vertical land motion brings the trends of the combined dataset closer to tide gauge records in most cases, but outliers remain. Daily maximum water levels get in closer agreement with tide gauges through the inclusion of intra-annual ocean density variations. The counterfactual data are derived from the factual data through subtraction of the quadratic trend. The dataset is made available openly through the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) at https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.749905 (Treu et al., 2023a).

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-03-262023-12-212024-02-272024-02-27
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 16
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see DOI)
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Data-Centric Modeling of Cross-Sectoral Impacts
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
Regional keyword: Global
Research topic keyword: Sea-level Rise
Research topic keyword: Attribution
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Project name : QUIDIC
Grant ID : 01LP1907A
Funding program : -
Funding organization : Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)
Project name : RECEIPT
Grant ID : 820712
Funding program : Horizon 2020 (H2020)
Funding organization : European Commission (EC)

Source 1

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Title: Earth System Science Data
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 16 (2) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1121 - 1136 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals2_126
Publisher: Copernicus