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  Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

Boit, A., Sakschewski, B., Boysen, L., Cano-Crespo, A., Clement, J., Garcia-Alaniz, N., Kok, K., Kolb, M., Langerwisch, F., Rammig, A., Sachse, R., Eupen, M. v., von Bloh, W., Zemp, D. C., Thonicke, K. (2016): Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America. - Global Change Biology, 22, 11, 3689-3701.
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13355

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 Creators:
Boit, Alice1, Author              
Sakschewski, Boris1, Author              
Boysen, Lena1, Author              
Cano-Crespo, Ana1, Author              
Clement, J.2, Author
Garcia-Alaniz, N.2, Author
Kok, K.2, Author
Kolb, M.2, Author
Langerwisch, Fanny1, Author              
Rammig, Anja1, Author              
Sachse, R.2, Author
Eupen, M. van2, Author
von Bloh, Werner1, Author              
Zemp, Delphine Clara1, Author              
Thonicke, Kirsten1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Climate change and land‐use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental‐scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio‐economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5–6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land‐use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land‐use expansion is halted by the mid‐century. We suggest that constraining land‐use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate‐change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio‐economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
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 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13355
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 7294
Working Group: Ecosystems in Transition
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Title: Global Change Biology
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 22 (11) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 3689 - 3701 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals192