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  Streamflow and soil moisture shift far beyond pre-industrial conditions globally – planetary boundary for freshwater change transgressed

Porkka, M., Virkki, V., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Gerten, D., Gleeson, T., Mohan, C., Fetzer, I., Jaramillo, F., Staal, A., te Wierik, S., Tobian, A., van der Ent, R., Döll, P., Flörke, M., Gosling, S., Hanasaki, N., Satoh, Y., Müller Schmied, H., Wanders, N., Famiglietti, J., Rockström, J., Kummu, M. (2024): Streamflow and soil moisture shift far beyond pre-industrial conditions globally – planetary boundary for freshwater change transgressed. - Nature Water, 2, 262-273.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00208-7

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https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.10531806 (Supplementary material)
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 Creators:
Porkka, M.1, Author
Virkki, V.1, Author
Wang-Erlandsson, Lan2, Author              
Gerten, Dieter2, Author              
Gleeson, T.1, Author
Mohan, C.1, Author
Fetzer, I.1, Author
Jaramillo, F.1, Author
Staal, A.1, Author
te Wierik, Sofie2, Author              
Tobian, Arne2, Author              
van der Ent, R.1, Author
Döll, P.1, Author
Flörke, M.1, Author
Gosling, S.N.1, Author
Hanasaki, N.1, Author
Satoh, Y.1, Author
Müller Schmied, H.1, Author
Wanders, N.1, Author
Famiglietti, J.S.1, Author
Rockström, Johan2, Author              Kummu, M.1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Human actions compromise the many life-supporting functions provided by the freshwater cycle. Yet, scientific understanding of anthropogenic freshwater change and its long-term evolution is limited. Here, using a multi-model ensemble of global hydrological models, we estimate how, over a 145-year industrial period (1861–2005), streamflow and soil moisture have deviated from pre-industrial baseline conditions (defined by 5th–95th percentiles, at 0.5° grid level and monthly timestep over 1661–1860). Comparing the two periods, we find an increased frequency of local deviations on ~45% of land area, mainly in regions under heavy direct or indirect human pressures. To estimate humanity’s aggregate impact on these two important elements of the freshwater cycle, we present the evolution of deviation occurrence at regional to global scales. Annually, local streamflow and soil moisture deviations now occur on 18.2% and 15.8% of global land area, respectively, which is 8.0 and 4.7 percentage points beyond the ~3 percentage point wide pre-industrial variability envelope. Our results signify a substantial shift from pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture reference conditions to persistently increasing change. This indicates a transgression of the new planetary boundary for freshwater change, which is defined and quantified using our approach, calling for urgent actions to reduce human disturbance of the freshwater cycle.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2024-01-092024-03-042024-03-04
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 19
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: Director / Executive Staff / Science & Society
Organisational keyword: Director Rockström
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Planetary Boundaries
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: LPJmL
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see DOI/paper)
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
DOI: 10.1038/s44221-024-00208-7
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Water
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 2 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 262 - 273 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/2731-6084
Publisher: Nature