English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
 
 
DownloadE-Mail
  Drivers of future fluvial flood risk change for residential buildings in Europe

Steinhausen, M., Paprotny, D., Dottori, F., Sairam, N., Mentaschi, L., Alfieri, L., Lüdtke, S., Kreibich, H., Schröter, K. (2022): Drivers of future fluvial flood risk change for residential buildings in Europe. - Global Environmental Change, 76, 102559.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102559

Item is

Files

show Files
hide Files
:
Drivers of future fluvial flood risk change for residential buildings in Europe.pdf (Publisher version), 10MB
 
File Permalink:
-
Name:
Drivers of future fluvial flood risk change for residential buildings in Europe.pdf
Description:
-
Visibility:
Private
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
-
Copyright Info:
-
License:
-

Locators

show

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Steinhausen, Max1, Author
Paprotny, Dominik2, Author              
Dottori, Francesco1, Author
Sairam, Nivedita1, Author
Mentaschi, Lorenzo1, Author
Alfieri, Lorenzo1, Author
Lüdtke, Stefan1, Author
Kreibich, Heidi1, Author
Schröter, Kai1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: Flooding is the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climatic and socioeconomic change are expected to further increase the amount of loss in the future. To counteract this development, policymaking, and adaptation planning need reliable large-scale risk assessments and an improved understanding of potential risk drivers. In this study, recent datasets for hazard and flood protection standards are combined with high resolution exposure projections and attributes of vulnerability derived from open data sources. The independent and combined influence of exposure change and climate scenarios rcp45 and rcp85 on fluvial flood risk are evaluated for three future periods centered around 2025, 2055 and 2085. Scenarios with improved and neglected private precaution are examined for their influence on flood risk using a probabilistic, multivariable flood loss model — BN-FLEMOps — to estimate fluvial flood losses for residential buildings in Europe. The results on NUTS-3 level reveal that urban centers and their surrounding regions are the hotspots of flood risk in Europe. Flood risk is projected to increase in the British Isles and Central Europe throughout the 21st century, while risk in many regions of Scandinavia and the Mediterranean will stagnate or decline. Under the combined effects of exposure change and climate scenarios rcp45, rcp85, fluvial flood risk in Europe is estimated to increase seven-fold and ten-fold respectively until the end of the century. Our results confirm the dominance of socioeconomic change over climate change on increasing risk. Improved private precautionary measures would reduce flood risk in Europe on an average by 15%. The quantification of future flood risk in Europe by integrating climate, socioeconomic and private precaution scenarios provides an overview of risk drivers, trends, and hotspots. This large-scale comprehensive assessment at a regional level resolution is valuable for multi-scale risk-based adaptation planning.

Details

show
hide
Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2022-06-302022-07-162022-09
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 14
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102559
MDB-ID: No data to archive
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Policy Advice
Regional keyword: Europe
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Global Environmental Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 76 Sequence Number: 102559 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals193
Publisher: Elsevier