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  One simulation, different conclusions - the baseline period makes the difference!

Liersch, S., Drews, M., Pilz, T., Salack, S., Sietz, D., Aich, V., Larsen, M. A. D., Gädeke, A., Halsnæs, K., Thiery, W., Huang, S., Lobanova, A., Koch, H., Hattermann, F. F. (2020): One simulation, different conclusions - the baseline period makes the difference! - Environmental Research Letters, 15, 10, 104014.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba3d7

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Liersch, Stefan1, Autor              
Drews, M.2, Autor
Pilz, Tobias1, Autor              
Salack, S.2, Autor
Sietz, Diana1, Autor              
Aich, Valentin1, Autor              
Larsen, M. A. D.2, Autor
Gädeke, Anne1, Autor              
Halsnæs, K.2, Autor
Thiery, W.2, Autor
Huang, Shaochun2, Autor
Lobanova, Anastasia1, Autor              
Koch, Hagen1, Autor              
Hattermann, Fred Fokko1, Autor              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Zusammenfassung: The choice of the base period, intentionally chosen or not, as a reference for assessing future changes of any projected variable can play an important role for the resulting statement. In regional climate impact studies, well-established or arbitrarily chosen baselines are often used without being questioned. Here we investigated the effects of different baseline periods on the interpretation of discharge simulations from eight river basins in the period 1960-2099. The simulations were forced by four bias-adjusted and downscaled Global Climate Models under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). To systematically evaluate how far the choice of different baselines impacts the simulation results, we developed a similarity index that compares two time series of projected changes. The results show that 25% of the analysed simulations are sensitive to the choice of the baseline period under RCP 2.6 and 32% under RCP 8.5. In extreme cases, change signals of two time series show opposite trends. This has serious consequences for key messages drawn from a basin-scale climate impact study. To address this problem, an algorithm was developed to identify flexible baseline periods for each simulation individually, which better represent the statistical properties of a given historical period.

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 Datum: 2020-07-082020
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
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 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba3d7
MDB-ID: yes - 2983
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Model / method: SWIM
Regional keyword: Africa
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Ecosystems in Transition
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
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Titel: Environmental Research Letters
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 15 (10) Artikelnummer: 104014 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326
Publisher: IOP Publishing