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  The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

Wang, E., Martre, P., Zhao, Z., Ewert, F., Maiorano, A., Rötter, R. P., Kimball, B. A., Ottmann, M. J., Wall, G. W., White, J. W., Reynolds, M. P., Alderman, P. D., Aggarwal, P. K., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A. J., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Dumont, B., Fereres, E., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Izaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C. D., Kersebaum, K.-C., Koehler, A.-K., Lu, L., Müller, C., Kumar, S. N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Olesen, J. E., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Rezaei, E. E., Ripoche, D., Ruane, A. C., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Stöckle, C., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P., Waha, K., Wallach, D., Wang, Z., Wolf, J., Zhu, Y., Asseng, S. (2017): The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions. - Nature Plants, 3, 17102.
https://doi.org/10.1038/nplants.2017.102

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 Creators:
Wang, E.1, Author
Martre, P.1, Author
Zhao, Z.1, Author
Ewert, F.1, Author
Maiorano, A.1, Author
Rötter, R. P.1, Author
Kimball, B. A.1, Author
Ottmann, M. J.1, Author
Wall, G. W.1, Author
White, J. W.1, Author
Reynolds, M. P.1, Author
Alderman, P. D.1, Author
Aggarwal, P. K.1, Author
Anothai, J.1, Author
Basso, B.1, Author
Biernath, C.1, Author
Cammarano, D.1, Author
Challinor, A. J.1, Author
De Sanctis, G.1, Author
Doltra, J.1, Author
Dumont, B.1, AuthorFereres, E.1, AuthorGarcia-Vila, M.1, AuthorGayler, S.1, AuthorHoogenboom, G.1, AuthorHunt, L. A.1, AuthorIzaurralde, R. C.1, AuthorJabloun, M.1, AuthorJones, C. D.1, AuthorKersebaum, K.-C.1, AuthorKoehler, A.-K.1, AuthorLu, L.1, AuthorMüller, Christoph2, Author              Kumar, S. N.1, AuthorNendel, C.1, AuthorO'Leary, G.1, AuthorOlesen, J. E.1, AuthorPalosuo, T.1, AuthorPriesack, E.1, AuthorRezaei, E. E.1, AuthorRipoche, D.1, AuthorRuane, A. C.1, AuthorSemenov, M. A.1, AuthorShcherbak, I.1, AuthorStöckle, C.1, AuthorStratonovitch, P.1, AuthorStreck, T.1, AuthorSupit, I.1, AuthorTao, F.1, AuthorThorburn, P.1, AuthorWaha, Katharina2, Author              Wallach, D.1, AuthorWang, Z.1, AuthorWolf, J.1, AuthorZhu, Y.1, AuthorAsseng, S.1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure globalfood security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on cropyield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functionscurrently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% ofuncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of newtemperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulationsacross seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improvedtemperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change,leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.

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 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/nplants.2017.102
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7650
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Model / method: LPJmL
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Plants
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 3 Sequence Number: 17102 Start / End Page: - Identifier: Other: Nature Publishing Group
Other: 2055-0278
ISSN: 2055-026X
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/nature-plants