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  Estimating Remaining Carbon Budgets Using Temperature Responses Informed by CMIP6

Rypdal, M., Boers, N., Fredriksen, H.-B., Eiselt, K.-U., Johansen, A., Martinsen, A., Falck Mentzoni, E., Graversen, R. G., Rypdal, K. (2021): Estimating Remaining Carbon Budgets Using Temperature Responses Informed by CMIP6. - Frontiers in Climate, 3, 686058.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.686058

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 Creators:
Rypdal, Martin1, Author
Boers, Niklas2, Author              
Fredriksen, Hege-Beate1, Author
Eiselt, Kai-Uwe1, Author
Johansen, Andreas1, Author
Martinsen, Andreas1, Author
Falck Mentzoni, Endre1, Author
Graversen, Rune G.1, Author
Rypdal, Kristoffer1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: A remaining carbon budget (RCB) estimates how much CO2 we can emit and still reach a specific temperature target. The RCB concept is attractive since it easily communicates to the public and policymakers, but RCBs are also subject to uncertainties. The expected warming levels for a given carbon budget has a wide uncertainty range, which increases with less ambitious targets, i.e., with higher CO2 emissions and temperatures. Leading causes of RCB uncertainty are the future non-CO2 emissions, Earth system feedbacks, and the spread in the climate sensitivity among climate models. The latter is investigated in this paper, using a simple carbon cycle model and emulators of the temperature responses of the Earth System Models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble. Driving 41 CMIP6 emulators with 127 different emission scenarios for the 21st century, we find almost perfect linear relationship between maximum global surface air temperature and cumulative carbon emissions, allowing unambiguous estimates of RCB for each CMIP6 model. The range of these estimates over the model ensemble is a measure of the uncertainty in the RCB arising from the range in climate sensitivity over this ensemble, and it is suggested that observational constraints imposed on the transient climate response in the model ensemble can reduce uncertainty in RCB estimates.

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 Dates: 2021-07-012021-07-122021-07-12
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2021.686058
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Artificial Intelligence in the Anthropocene
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
Research topic keyword: Decarbonization  
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: MAGICC
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Frontiers in Climate
Source Genre: Journal, other, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 3 Sequence Number: 686058 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/frontiers-in-climate
Publisher: Frontiers