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要旨:
Adaptation strategies sustaining agricultural production under climate change are urgently required in Sub-Saharan Africa. To quantify the impacts of different adaptation options in Burkina
Faso, this study simulated sorghum yields under current and projected climatic conditions with
and without adaptation. We used the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer
(DSSAT) at 0.5° spatial resolution (around 55 km) and forced the model with two climate change
scenarios. Our calibrated model showed good agreement between reported and simulated yields
(Pearson’s r = 0.77; out-of-sample r = 0.68). DSSAT was configured to mimic four distinct adaptation measures: integrated soil fertility management (ISFM), irrigation, an improved variety, and
agroforestry. Results show that nationally averaged sorghum yields are projected to decrease by
5.5% under high emissions by 2090 without adaptation. Major yield losses (up to 35%) would
occur in the southern and western parts of the country. Our assessments identify ISFM as the
most effective adaptation strategy, increasing yield up to 300%, followed by agroforestry (up to
125%), an improved variety (up to 90%), and irrigation (up to 43%) at the regional scale. ISFM is
effective across all regions, while irrigation and an improved variety are most effective in the northern and western parts. Agroforestry, meanwhile, is most effective in the south and eastern part of
the country. We conclude that climate change in Burkina Faso could negatively affect sorghum
yields, but adequate adaptation options exist to enhance agricultural resilience.
