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  The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts

Harmsen, M., Vuuren, D. P. v., Bodirsky, B. L., Chateau, J., Durand-Lasserve, O., Drouet, L., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Gernaat, D. E. H. J., Hanaoka, T., Hilaire, J., Keramidas, K., Luderer, G., Moura, M. C. P., Sano, F., Smith, S. J., Wada, K. (2020): The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts. - Climatic Change, 163, 3, 1409-1425.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02437-2

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Harmsen, M.1, Author
Vuuren, D. P. van1, Author
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon2, Author              
Chateau, J.1, Author
Durand-Lasserve, O.1, Author
Drouet, L.1, Author
Fricko, O.1, Author
Fujimori, S.1, Author
Gernaat, D. E. H. J.1, Author
Hanaoka, T.1, Author
Hilaire, Jérôme2, Author              
Keramidas, K.1, Author
Luderer, Gunnar2, Author              
Moura, M. C. P.1, Author
Sano, F.1, Author
Smith, S. J.1, Author
Wada, K.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: This study examines model-specific assumptions and projections of methane (CH4) emissions in deep mitigation scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs). For this, scenarios of nine models are compared in terms of sectoral and regional CH4 emission reduction strategies, as well as resulting climate impacts. The models’ projected reduction potentials are compared to sector and technology-specific reduction potentials found in literature. Significant cost-effective and non-climate policy related reductions are projected in the reference case (10–36% compared to a “frozen emission factor” scenario in 2100). Still, compared to 2010, CH4 emissions are expected to rise steadily by 9–72% (up to 412 to 654 Mt CH4/year). Ambitious CO2 reduction measures could by themselves lead to a reduction of CH4 emissions due to a reduction of fossil fuels (22–48% compared to the reference case in 2100). However, direct CH4 mitigation is crucial and more effective in bringing down CH4 (50–74% compared to the reference case). Given the limited reduction potential, agriculture CH4 emissions are projected to constitute an increasingly larger share of total anthropogenic CH4 emissions in mitigation scenarios. Enteric fermentation in ruminants is in that respect by far the largest mitigation bottleneck later in the century with a projected 40–78% of total remaining CH4 emissions in 2100 in a strong (2 °C) climate policy case.

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 Dates: 2019-05-242020-12-12
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02437-2
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
eDoc: 8528
MDB-ID: yes
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Energy Systems
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Title: Climatic Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 163 (3) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1409 - 1425 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals80
Publisher: Springer