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  Climate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation

Sauer, I., Reese, R., Otto, C., Geiger, T., Willner, S., Guillod, B. P., Bresch, D. N., Frieler, K. (2021): Climate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation. - Nature Communications, 12, 2128.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22153-9

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25078 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25078_4
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Sauer, Inga1, Author              
Reese, Ronja1, Author              
Otto, Christian1, Author              
Geiger, Tobias1, Author              
Willner, Sven1, Author              
Guillod, Benoit P.2, Author
Bresch, David N.2, Author
Frieler, Katja1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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Free keywords: DEAL Springer Nature
 Abstract: Climate change affects precipitation patterns. Here, we investigate whether its signals are already detectable in reported river flood damages. We develop an empirical model to reconstruct observed damages and quantify the contributions of climate and socio-economic drivers to observed trends. We show that, on the level of nine world regions, trends in damages are dominated by increasing exposure and modulated by changes in vulnerability, while climate-induced trends are comparably small and mostly statistically insignificant, with the exception of South & Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Asia. However, when disaggregating the world regions into subregions based on river-basins with homogenous historical discharge trends, climate contributions to damages become statistically significant globally, in Asia and Latin America. In most regions, we find monotonous climate-induced damage trends but more years of observations would be needed to distinguish between the impacts of anthropogenic climate forcing and multidecadal oscillations.

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 Dates: 2020-06-202021-01-042021-04-092021-04-09
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
MDB-ID: yes - 3169
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22153-9
Research topic keyword: Attribution
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Model / method: Open Source Software
Regional keyword: Global
OATYPE: Gold - DEAL Springer Nature
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Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 12 Sequence Number: 2128 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354
Publisher: Springer Nature