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  Bathymetry-constrained warm-mode melt estimates derived from analysing Oceanic Gateways in Antarctica

Nicola, L., Reese, R., Kreuzer, M., Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R. (in press): Bathymetry-constrained warm-mode melt estimates derived from analysing Oceanic Gateways in Antarctica. - The Cryosphere.

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 Creators:
Nicola, Lena1, Author              
Reese, Ronja1, Author              
Kreuzer, Moritz1, Author              
Albrecht, Torsten1, Author              
Winkelmann, Ricarda1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Melting underneath the floating ice shelves surrounding the Antarctic continent is a key process for the stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and therefore its current and future mass loss. Troughs and sills on the continental shelf play a crucial role in modulating sub-shelf melt rates, as they can allow or block the access of relatively warm, modified Circumpolar Deep Water to ice-shelf cavities. Here we identify potential oceanic gateways that could allow the access of warm water masses to Antarctic grounding lines based on critical access depths inferred from high-resolution bathymetry data. We analyse the properties of water masses that are currently present in front of the ice shelf and that might intrude into the respective ice-shelf cavities in the future. We use the ice-shelf cavity model PICO to estimate an upper limit of melt rate changes in case all warm water masses up to a certain depth level gain access to the cavities. We find that melt rates could increase in all regions at least by a factor of 2. Depending on the presence or absence of an oceanic gateway and the current ice-shelf melt conditions we find up to 200-fold larger melt rates. The identification of oceanic gateways is thus valuable for assessing the potential of ice-shelf cavities to switch from a 'cold' to a 'warm' state, which could result in widespread ice loss from Antarctica.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2025-03-21
 Publication Status: Accepted / In Press
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: Earth Resilience Science Unit - ERSU
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: Earth Resilience Science Unit - ERSU
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Research topic keyword: Ice
Regional keyword: Arctic & Antarctica
Model / method: PISM-PIK
MDB-ID: pending
OATYPE: Gold - Copernicus
 Degree: -

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Title: The Cryosphere
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140507
Publisher: Copernicus