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  Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2°C world

Pfleiderer, P., Schleussner, C.-F., Kornhuber, K., Coumou, D. (2019): Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2°C world. - Nature Climate Change, 9, 9, 666-671.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0555-0

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Pfleiderer, Peter1, Author              
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich1, Author              
Kornhuber, Kai1, Author              
Coumou, Dim1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Heat and rainfall extremes have intensified over the past few decades and this trend is projected to continue with future global warming1,2,3. A long persistence of extreme events often leads to societal impacts with warm-and-dry conditions severely affecting agriculture and consecutive days of heavy rainfall leading to flooding. Here we report systematic increases in the persistence of boreal summer weather in a multi-model analysis of a world 2 °C above pre-industrial compared to present-day climate. Averaged over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land area, the probability of warm periods lasting longer than two weeks is projected to increase by 4% (2–6% full uncertainty range) after removing seasonal-mean warming. Compound dry–warm persistence increases at a similar magnitude on average but regionally up to 20% (11–42%) in eastern North America. The probability of at least seven consecutive days of strong precipitation increases by 26% (15–37%) for the mid-latitudes. We present evidence that weakening storm track activity contributes to the projected increase in warm and dry persistence. These changes in persistence are largely avoided when warming is limited to 1.5 °C. In conjunction with the projected intensification of heat and rainfall extremes, an increase in persistence can substantially worsen the effects of future weather extremes.

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 Dates: 2019
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0555-0
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
eDoc: 8546
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Weather
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: Global
Regional keyword: Europe
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Earth System Modes of Operation
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Title: Nature Climate Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 9 (9) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 666 - 671 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140414