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  Understanding the carbon dioxide removal range in 1.5 °C compatible and high overshoot pathways

Prütz, R., Strefler, J., Rogelj, J., Fuss, S. (2023): Understanding the carbon dioxide removal range in 1.5 °C compatible and high overshoot pathways. - Environmental Research Communications, 5, 4, 041005.
https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/accdba

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Prütz_2023_Environ._Res._Commun._5_041005.pdf (Publisher version), 2MB
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Locator:
https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.5886911 (Supplementary material)
Description:
AR6 Scenarios Database

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 Creators:
Prütz, Ruben1, Author
Strefler, Jessica2, Author              
Rogelj, Joeri1, Author
Fuss, Sabine1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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Free keywords: carbon dioxide removal, climate change mitigation, negative emissions, net-zero, overshoot, scenarios
 Abstract: Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) features prominently in the 1.5 °C compatible and high overshoot pathways in the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, WGIII). However, the amount of CDR varies considerably among scenarios. We analyze the range in CDR volumes in AR6 WGIII pathways by exploring relationships between variables as potential driving forces, focusing on CDR in 2050 and scenario properties linked to reaching net-zero CO2. It is also shown how the relative and absolute contribution of CDR to total mitigation up until reaching net-zero CO2 substantially differs across scenarios. The volumes of CDR in 2050 and 2100 and the cumulative amount throughout the 21st century were most strongly correlated to the degree to which CO2 emissions are reduced as a means of reaching net-zero CO2. CDR in 2050 is also substantially correlated to the timing of net-zero CO2. The robustness of the analyzed relationships was evaluated by comparing different scenario filtering and data-cleaning approaches. Beyond filtering and cleaning, additional factors that influence CDR deployment in scenarios, such as discount rates, carbon price trajectories, and scenario design choices, were discussed.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-04-042023-02-092023-04-172023-04-262023-04-26
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 10
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Energy Systems
Research topic keyword: Decarbonization
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see DOI)
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/accdba
 Degree: -

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Title: Environmental Research Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, oa
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 5 (4) Sequence Number: 041005 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/190326
Publisher: IOP Publishing