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  Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

Robiou du Pont, Y., Jeffery, M. L., Gütschow, J., Rogelj, J., Christoff, P., Meinshausen, M. (2017): Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. - Nature Climate Change, 7, 1, 38-43.
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3186

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 Creators:
Robiou du Pont, Y.1, Author
Jeffery, M. Louise2, Author              
Gütschow, Johannes2, Author              
Rogelj, J.1, Author
Christoff, P.1, Author
Meinshausen, Malte2, Author              
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Benchmarks to guide countries in ratcheting-up ambition, climate finance, and support in an equitable manner are critical but not yet determined in the context of the Paris Agreement1. We identify global cost-optimal mitigation scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement goals and allocate their emissions dynamically to countries according to five equity approaches. At the national level, China's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is weaker than any of the five equity approaches, India's and the USA's NDC are aligned with two, and the EU's with three. Most developing countries’ conditional (Intended) NDCs (INDCs) are more ambitious than the average of the five equity approaches under the 2 °C goal. If the G8 and China adopt the average of the five approaches, the gap between conditional INDCs and 2 °C-consistent pathways could be closed. For an equitable, cost-optimal achievement of the 1.5 °C target, emissions in 2030 are 21% lower (relative to 2010) than for 2 °C for the G8 and China combined, and 39% lower for remaining countries. Equitably limiting warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2 °C requires that individual countries achieve mitigation milestones, such as peaking or reaching net-zero emissions, around a decade earlier.

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 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3186
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7375
Research topic keyword: Inequality and Equity
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Model / method: MAGICC
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Event-based modeling of economic impacts of climate change
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Climate Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 7 (1) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 38 - 43 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140414